Tag: FSD

Key Takeaways

1. Tesla’s free Full Self-Driving (FSD) transfer promotion will end on February 14, affecting Model Y owners who previously benefited from transferring FSD to new vehicles.
2. Starting February 15, Tesla will no longer sell FSD outright for $8,000, shifting to a subscription model with a monthly fee of $99 for new and existing owners.
3. The subscription model presents challenges for Tesla as vehicle sales decline, pushing the company to seek new revenue streams in a weak EV market.
4. New Model Y owners wishing to join the Robotaxi fleet will need to pay for FSD subscription and give Tesla 20% of their earnings from ride-sharing.
5. Future pricing for FSD subscriptions remains uncertain, with potential tiered pricing based on vehicle capabilities and whether owners choose to participate in the Robotaxi platform.

Tesla’s well-liked free FSD transfer promotion will be ending after February 14, as stated by Elon Musk, who has been quite open about the situation recently.

Changes for Model Y Owners

Previously, owners of the Model Y who bought the Full Self-Driving (FSD) feature outright at its various prices over the years (currently set at $8,000) could transfer this highly sought-after feature to a new Model Y or any other Tesla vehicle they purchased. The free FSD transfer had almost become a regular offer, with Tesla frequently extending it, having only a couple of quarters in the last two years where it wasn’t available as a purchase incentive.

Subscription Model Introduction

Instead of continuing to sell the FSD option for $8,000, Tesla will cease all sales starting February 15. Moving forward, the only way for existing and future Tesla owners who haven’t purchased FSD will be to subscribe and pay the monthly fee set by Tesla. The current subscription price for FSD is $99 per month. This means that for those who bought it outright, it would take around eight years to recover their investment, which is about the lifespan of their Model Y. However, they could have transferred it to a new Model Y under the free transfer deal, or whatever Tesla provides at that time, allowing them to utilize it for years without any additional costs.

Revenue Challenges for Tesla

This situation is not ideal for Tesla, especially since their vehicle sales are on the decline, and they need to find ways to generate revenue in a somewhat weak EV market. Moreover, Tesla is preparing to roll out the unsupervised FSD version that will operate its robotaxis through an over-the-air update. This would enable owners of the 2026 Model Y to add their vehicles to the Robotaxi ride-share fleet whenever they choose and earn money when they aren’t using their cars.

This additional revenue opportunity could be thrilling for many Tesla vehicle owners. However, it poses a challenge for those who already purchased FSD outright, as they can continue to benefit from it for many years. After February 14, new Model Y owners who wish to contribute their vehicles to the Robotaxi fleet will not only have to pay for a monthly or yearly subscription for FSD (Unsupervised), but they will also need to give Tesla about 20% of their revenue for managing the ride-share platform and processing payments. In essence, Tesla will halt the sale of FSD 14 just as their Robotaxi service goes public, aiming to boost revenue through this more profitable subscription-only model.

Future Pricing Uncertainty

It’s uncertain whether the monthly fee for FSD will stay the same or if Tesla will introduce a tiered subscription model. There might be one price for the upcoming simplified FSD 14 Lite for HW3 vehicles and a different price for the complete FSD available on newer models equipped with HW4. Those who don’t want to list their vehicles on the Robotaxi platform could stick with a less expensive version of FSD (Supervised), while those looking to profit as robotaxis may face higher costs for the unsupervised edition, and so forth.

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Key Takeaways

1. Mark Rober’s test showed Tesla’s Autopilot performance negatively compared to a Lexus with LiDAR, but inconsistencies led to further independent testing.
2. The 2022 Model Y with Hardware 3.0 failed to detect a fake wall, while the 2024 Model Y with Hardware 4.0 successfully stopped before the obstacle.
3. A similar successful test was performed with the Cybertruck, also equipped with Hardware 4.0.
4. Tesla plans to begin unsupervised FSD testing in Austin, Texas, starting in June, with necessary permits obtained.
5. Tesla is considering a retrofit program for older vehicles with Hardware 3.0 if unsupervised FSD cannot be successfully implemented on those models.

Recently, a test by Mark Rober compared a Tesla using Autopilot with a Lexus autonomous driving system, which is renowned for its use of LiDAR. This test didn’t show Tesla’s camera-only approach in a good light.

Inconsistent Results

However, Rober’s setup had so many inconsistencies that a group of independent testers decided to put a Tesla through similar tests to see if they could confirm or counter his findings. In a recent round of testing, a Model Y equipped with the new Hardware 4.0 FSD was tested against an older Model Y that had the Hardware 3.0 version, which is still much more common on roads in the US.

Different Models, Different Outcomes

The 2022 Model Y was fitted with the HW3 package and used the latest version of Tesla’s FSD software designed for that hardware, while the 2024 Model Y had the upgraded HW4, also referred to as AI4 by Tesla. The HW3 Model Y did indeed fail the test; it didn’t detect the wall that was painted to look like a road and drove straight through it. The testers ran the test twice, having to brake manually, and once allowed the 2022 Model Y to crash through the fake wall while in FSD mode.

The 2024 Model Y, equipped with the HW4’s high-resolution cameras and a new FSD computer, successfully detected the fake wall every time and stopped the vehicle before it reached the obstacle while in self-driving mode. A similar test was performed with the Cybertruck, which also has the HW4 setup, and it too did not collide with the wall.

Upcoming Unsupervised Testing

Tesla is getting ready to test its unsupervised FSD mode, which won’t need a driver to be present or paying attention, starting this June in Austin, Texas. The autonomous driving team recently announced that they obtained the necessary permit for pilot program testing by showing city officials in a Cybercab.

“Thanks to Austin City & Texas DOT for hosting & supporting our efforts to unlock safe & low-cost premium point-to-point electric transport,” the team stated, confirming that the June launch for unsupervised FSD is on track. However, Tesla hasn’t yet figured out how to make the newest FSD version work on older vehicles with the HW3 setup, and it may also struggle to implement unsupervised FSD successfully on those models. Elon Musk promised that if that happens, Tesla will upgrade HW4 computers into eligible HW3 vehicles at their own expense.

The Wile E. Coyote wall test indicates that a HW3 computer retrofit program may become necessary in the future along the fake painted road.

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During the last quarterly call with Tesla, Elon Musk announced that the company will launch a fleet of its vehicles featuring the unsupervised FSD function in Austin, Texas, this coming June.

New Models Coming Soon

Most of these vehicles are expected to be the 2026 Model Y Juniper and Model 3, equipped with AI4 (Hardware 4.0) systems and an FSD 13 update. This upgrade will enable these cars to navigate city streets autonomously, without the need for a driver onboard. This fleet will serve as the initial test for the paid Robotaxi ride-sharing service, allowing Tesla owners and the two-seat Cybercabs to join the platform in the following year.

Regulatory Hurdles Ahead

To gain approval for this unsupervised FSD, which operates without a driver, Tesla must prove that its self-driving technology is safer than human drivers, even in states like Texas where regulations are more relaxed. This might explain why, just before the earnings call, Tesla’s AI team released the latest safety figures for Autopilot and FSD, which Elon Musk presented to investors.

In the fourth quarter, there was one crash for every 5.94 million miles driven with Autopilot engaged, compared to one crash for every 1.08 million miles when it wasn’t used. In contrast, the most recent data from NHTSA and FHWA shows that in the US, there is an automobile crash roughly every 702,000 miles.

A Complex Situation

These statistics don’t differentiate between city and highway driving, and Musk mentioned that the vehicles are eight times safer than human drivers when comparing to NHTSA numbers, rather than the six times safer when using Tesla’s own data. Additionally, he pointed out that current human drivers using FSD must deactivate it to check messages or emails, which creates a frustrating situation for many. “We’re in this odd situation where people turn off autopilot just to check a text, while steering with their knee,” said Musk.

When asked about the rollout of unsupervised FSD following the Austin pilot in June, Elon mentioned that the US is expected to have it this year, with China and Europe likely following by the end of 2026. He noted that the main challenges in Europe are regulatory, as various bodies meet at set intervals to discuss such features, while in China, geopolitical factors and complicated local driving rules present significant hurdles.

Tackling Training Challenges

In China, Tesla faces difficulties due to restrictions on transferring training videos out of the country, while the US government isn’t allowing training to occur in China. To address this, the company is analyzing publicly available videos of Chinese streets to enhance their training materials. They are also developing a simulator to replicate complex scenarios, such as bus lanes, which have strict operating hours. “If you accidentally enter a bus lane at the wrong time, you get an automatic ticket, so it’s a serious issue,” Musk explained.

While Tesla competes with companies that are introducing their own driver-assist technologies in China, including autonomous battery swapping and existing robotaxis, the unsupervised FSD seems to be poised for success in Europe and the US. However, whether this will lead to the remarkable profits Musk has been forecasting for Tesla and its vehicle owners is still uncertain.

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Dirty HW3 or HW4 cameras have long been a frustration for many Tesla drivers using Autopilot, FSD, or parking in tough weather.

The cameras on Tesla vehicles often face issues like fogging, freezing, or getting covered with dirt, sleet, or snow. This affects all the driver-assist features, leading some drivers to wish Tesla would reconsider their choice to ditch LiDAR in favor of a camera-based Vision system. One Reddit user pointed out:

“This is a major issue for ALL their vehicles. Autopilot doesn’t function well when the cameras are dirty, and I’ve been saying for years now that they need to implement weather solutions for all the cameras if they want FSD to meet people’s needs. Other manufacturers have added washers to their cameras; why hasn’t Tesla done the same?”

Addressing the Issue

Tesla has taken steps to tackle the problem of dirty FSD cameras, but not for the rear camera, which tends to get dirtier than the others. Drivers often found themselves needing to use a camera cleaning kit. The Cybertruck was designed with a cleaning and heating system for the front bumper camera, which was previously a unique feature of Tesla’s first electric pickup.

Fortunately, this camera washing feature is now being introduced to the Model Y Juniper facelift set to launch in March. Early reviews of the 2025 Model Y have begun testing the front bumper camera washer, and it’s hopeful that the lens will also include a heating element like in the Cybertruck, helping to clear ice or snow during winter without requiring drivers to step outside their Model Y Juniper.

Future Developments

Regarding the rear cameras that often gather dirt, Tesla recently announced that they are working on a “comprehensive cleaning solution,” but they haven’t shared any specifics yet.

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