With the drop in battery prices, Tesla’s Cybercab may turn a profit even at a price of $15,000, thanks to its efficiency per kWh of battery pack.
However, this figure is lower than what Elon Musk stated during the Cybercab’s launch, where he mentioned it would be priced at twice that amount, not counting any subsidies or incentives. According to an analysis by ARK Invest concerning the potential of the robotaxi market, the cost could be achievable once produced on a larger scale.
Efficiency and Costs
Tesla has indicated that the Cybercab will achieve an efficiency of 5.5 miles per kWh. If we combine this with the expected decline in battery costs predicted by Wright’s Law, we might see battery costs drop to around $2,300. Generally, the drivetrain makes up around 20% of a vehicle’s overall cost, suggesting that a Cybercab could be profitable at or below $15,000.
There are many assumptions involved here, and while ARK has a reputation for being overly optimistic, even if the price stays below $30,000 with subsidies, the real hurdles to getting Cybercabs on the streets have more to do with regulations than Tesla’s pricing.
Regulatory Challenges Ahead
Convincing regulators that a fully autonomous vehicle without a steering wheel or pedals is safe will take time. Even though Elon Musk has stated he will leverage his role in the DOGE project to expedite the regulatory process, whether that is a conflict of interest is still debatable.
Tesla aims to kick off its robotaxi service with unsupervised Full Self-Driving (FSD) in Austin this June. However, the fleet will initially consist of Model Y Juniper and Model 3 vehicles, with Cybercabs expected to join only by 2026 at the soonest.
Practical Considerations for Cybercabs
There are also numerous practical issues to resolve, like the Cybercab’s wireless charging and cleaning systems. After rides, when passengers leave behind a mess, there won’t be a driver available to clean it up with a portable vacuum.
Tesla has hinted that it has solutions for these challenges and is working on a self-cleaning mechanism for its Robotaxi fleet. A robotic arm is designed to enter a Cybercab and automatically identify items to remove, dispose of, or vacuum.
In the end, it can even wipe away fingerprints from the display, preparing the Cybercab for the next passenger. However, it remains uncertain how effectively all these systems will function in real life and where the cleaning and charging stations for the Cybercabs will be set up.
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