DRAM Crisis Forecast: SK Hynix Predicts No Quick Recovery Until 2028

Key Takeaways

1. The memory crisis is worsening, with Samsung reportedly doubling contract prices for DDR5 RAM.
2. Companies like Dell and Lenovo are limiting mid-range laptops to 8 GB of RAM due to the shortage.
3. SK Hynix predicts the DRAM shortage could last until at least 2028, driven by slow production capacity expansion.
4. AI data centers are significantly increasing demand for memory, impacting supply for PCs.
5. While some experts believe DDR5 prices could stabilize in 6 to 8 months, SK Hynix’s outlook remains grim.

The memory crisis, fueled by the rising needs of AI data centers, seems to be worsening. Reports indicate that Samsung has allegedly increased contract prices for DDR5 RAM by two times. Additionally, companies like Dell and Lenovo are reportedly restricting mid-range laptops to only 8 GB of RAM. The much-awaited Steam Machine might also experience delays or be launched as a basic model due to this shortage. While many are eager for a quick fix, SK Hynix offers a much grimmer perspective on the future.

Long-lasting Shortage Expected

SK Hynix suggests that the DRAM shortage could persist until at least 2028, as revealed in internal reports shared by tech analyst BullsLab Jay on X.

The main factor contributing to this dismal forecast is the sluggish pace of expanding production capacity. New DRAM fabrication plants are not expected to provide substantial output until 2028. Meanwhile, demand continues to surge: AI servers are taking up an increasing portion of production, alongside the growing memory needs for PCs, especially as AI PCs become more popular (currently, a 2 x 16 GB kit of Crucial Pro DDR5 RAM is priced around $390 on Amazon).

Market Imbalance Continues

Due to the current mismatch between supply and demand, SK Hynix estimates that the DRAM market won’t find stability before 2028. However, this is only one perspective among many, and it doesn’t represent a fixed prediction—more positive forecasts are out there. For instance, Edward Crisler, PR manager at Sapphire, argues that DDR5 prices could stabilize within six to eight months, assuming consumers refrain from panic buying.

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