Tag: TrendForce

  • Xiaomi Smartphone Production Drops 40%; iPhone 17 Gains

    Xiaomi Smartphone Production Drops 40%; iPhone 17 Gains

    Key Takeaway

    – Global DRAM/NAND prices have surged dramatically since fall 2025 (e.g., 16GB DDR5 from $37 to ~$200), driven by massive AI demand from companies like OpenAI.
    – Smartphone manufacturing fell 1.7% year-over-year in Q1 2026 to 284 million units, with a projected 16.2% annual decline to 1.051 billion units.
    – Budget smartphone makers are hit hardest: Xiaomi’s production dropped 38%, while Vivo’s fell 8%.
    – Premium manufacturers are more resilient: Samsung’s production rose 2%, and Apple’s surged 20% due to strong iPhone 17 sales.

    Since fall 2025, prices for RAM and NAND flash memory have risen dramatically – 16 GB DDR5 now costs consumers around $200, while the same RAM stick was still being offered for $37 last year. The immense demand for RAM and NAND from AI giants such as OpenAI is not only increasing costs for consumers, but also for manufacturers of products such as desktop PCs, laptops and smartphones. This situation has put a lot of strain on the entire supply chain, making it harder for budget-friendly devices to stay affordable.

    Manufacturing Decline and Inventory Effects

    An analysis by TrendForce shows how the crisis effected various smartphone manufacturers in the first quarter of 2026. In total, only 284 million smartphones were manufactured in the first quarter, 1.7% fewer than in the same quarter of the previous year. According to TrendForce, the DRAM crisis is only having a delayed affect, as smartphone manufacturers still have DRAM inventories from the previous year and fears of further price increases have boosted demand. TrendForce expects production to fall by 16.2 percent to 1.051 billion units over the year as a whole.

    Impact on Budget vs Premium Brands

    However, the data from the first quarter already shows that manufacturers of cheaper smartphones are likely to be hit harder. Xiaomi produced 38 percent fewer smartphones than in the same period last year, while Vivo’s production volume was reduced by 8 percent. Manufacturers with higher average selling prices, on the other hand, are in a better position – Samsung was able to produce 2% more smartphones than the previous year, while Apple’s production volume even increased by 20% due to the popularity of the iPhone 17 series.

    Market Outlook Amidst Crisis

    It seems that the market is now split into two different segments, with premium brands weathering the storm while budget makers are struggling. TrendForce is predicting further declines as the year progresses, which could mean even higher end-user prices for RAM modules. The shortage of DRAM is unlikely to resolve quickly, and this could reshape the smartphone landscape for years to come.


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  • Laptop Prices May Rise 40% Due to Soaring Component Costs

    Laptop Prices May Rise 40% Due to Soaring Component Costs

    Key Takeaways

    1. Rising component costs, especially for RAM and storage, are driving up laptop prices significantly.
    2. RAM and storage are expected to increase from 15% to 30% of a laptop’s total bill of materials (BOM).
    3. CPU prices are also rising, with Intel increasing prices on entry-level SKUs by about 15%.
    4. Combined, RAM, storage, and CPU could account for 58% of a laptop’s overall BOM cost.
    5. Consumers will face higher prices, as manufacturers are unlikely to absorb increased costs without raising retail prices.

    A new report from TrendForce highlights a concerning outlook for those looking to buy laptops. The consumer PC market as a whole has been struggling in recent months, primarily due to decreased demand and unprecedented prices for essential components.

    Rising Component Costs

    In recent times, RAM prices have surged dramatically, with storage costs also experiencing significant increases. This situation has compelled many original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) to raise their prices, while smaller companies often face unfortunate delays or cancellations of their products. According to TrendForce, the likelihood of improvement in this scenario appears slim, with laptop prices projected to rise by as much as 40%.

    Breakdown of Expenses

    The report specifies that RAM and storage typically contribute to about 15% of a laptop’s total bill of materials (BOM). However, after several rounds of price increases, these components are set to represent a staggering 30% of a laptop’s BOM.

    Additionally, CPU prices are anticipated to climb in the upcoming quarters, as they are among the most costly parts of modern laptops. TrendForce notes that Intel has already started to raise prices on some of its entry-level SKUs by approximately 15%. When you factor in the rising costs of RAM and storage, these three components could soon account for 58% of a laptop’s overall BOM cost, up from 45%.

    Impact on Consumers

    Unsurprisingly, these increased costs are expected to affect consumers directly unless manufacturers are prepared to absorb significant losses on their profit margins, which is quite unlikely. For example, the WD SN7100 1 TB drive that previously sold for around $70 on Amazon has now jumped to an astounding $200. The same trend is evident with consumer DDR5 memory sticks, and there’s little hope for prices to normalize in the near future.

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  • Budget MacBook Neo Could Boost Apple’s Market Share Amid Downturn

    Budget MacBook Neo Could Boost Apple’s Market Share Amid Downturn

    Key Takeaways

    1. Apple launched the new $599 MacBook Neo, surprising many who expected a price of at least $699.
    2. TrendForce predicts the MacBook Neo could see shipments of 4 to 5 million units, contributing to a 7.7% growth in MacBook shipments by 2026.
    3. The MacBook Neo has a capped memory of 8 GB that cannot be upgraded, which may affect buyer interest.
    4. Apple’s efficient supply chain management allows it to keep costs down and maintain product quality.
    5. The MacBook Neo aims to attract young professionals and students, potentially increasing macOS’s market share to 13.2% by 2026.

    Apple sure surprised many folks with its new $599 MacBook Neo. For a long time, people were talking about a cheaper MacBook, but recent talks suggested that Apple might not be able to sell it for less than $699.

    Exciting Developments in the Tech Market

    TrendForce, a respected market analysis company, seems to be excited about Apple’s unexpected move, noting that the company is going against the trend of other brands in the consumer tech world. Recently, prices for RAM and storage have shot up, causing well-known companies to struggle with offering affordable products.

    The success of the MacBook Neo is likely to hinge on how well potential buyers react to its 8 GB memory cap, which cannot be upgraded. TrendForce estimates that shipments for the MacBook Neo could reach between 4 to 5 million units, contributing to a notable 7.7% growth in overall MacBook shipments in 2026, despite an expected decline of 9.2% in general notebook shipments.

    Apple’s Supply Chain Mastery

    Apple has a well-known reputation for managing its supply chains efficiently, which helps them keep their costs and margins in check. Unlike most original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) who depend on numerous vendors for their hardware and software needs, Apple predominantly handles these aspects in-house. This self-reliance allows Apple to maintain excellent control over the performance and cost of its final products.

    TrendForce also mentions that Apple is now in a prime position to attract young professionals and students to its desktop ecosystem by providing an affordable entry point with the MacBook Neo. This move is likely to boost the brand’s market share significantly, with expectations that macOS’s share could rise to 13.2% by 2026.

    Comparing Options in the Mac Lineup

    While the Mac mini, which is currently listed at $549 on Amazon, offers a budget-friendly way into the Mac world, it does require customers to buy monitors and accessories separately. In contrast, the MacBook Neo provides a full Mac experience right out of the box, with very few drawbacks and practically no restrictions. However, the real-world success of the MacBook Neo will only become clear in the upcoming quarters.

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  • Slower PS5 and Switch 2 Sales Expected in 2026 Due to Memory Shortage

    Slower PS5 and Switch 2 Sales Expected in 2026 Due to Memory Shortage

    Key Takeaways

    1. Buyers are currently benefiting from discounts on PS5 consoles and occasional savings on the Switch 2, but these promotions may disappear by 2026 due to rising memory costs.
    2. Memory costs make up a significant portion of the prices for consoles, with approximately 35% for PS5 and Xbox, and 21-23% for the Switch 2, affecting profitability for manufacturers.
    3. Nintendo’s Switch 2 may struggle to maintain its price stability as production costs rise, particularly due to increases in NAND flash memory prices.
    4. The semiconductor crisis of 2021 impacted console production, leading to reduced sales forecasts for both Sony and Nintendo.
    5. Future predictions indicate a potential stagnation in the console market before the release of PS6 and the next Xbox, with a forecasted 4.4% decline in shipments.

    Buyers are currently enjoying attractive discounts on PS5 consoles this holiday season, along with occasional savings on the Switch 2. Nonetheless, a report from TrendForce warns that similar promotions may not be present in 2026. The rising costs of memory could contribute to a 4.4% drop in console shipments when compared to the previous year.

    Memory Market Impacts

    Initially, TrendForce anticipated a decline of 3.5% before memory producers shifted focus to meet the demands of growing AI data centers. Their updated findings highlight that console makers usually absorb losses on hardware sales. Yet, memory constitutes about 21-23% of the Switch 2’s price, while it accounts for roughly 35% of the PS5 and Xbox systems. Revenue from software and subscriptions alone likely won’t be sufficient to counter these financial hurdles.

    Challenges for Nintendo

    Nintendo’s handheld device may already find it hard to keep its current MSRP stable. Up to now, the Switch 2 has escaped the price hikes that the PS5 has experienced due to inventory issues. However, the original Switch and its accessories haven’t fared as well. In addition to concerns regarding system memory, the rising costs of NAND flash could result in higher production expenses for cartridges.

    TrendForce predicts that even fleeting discounts may become a rarity in 2026. While Nintendo and Sony may have stockpiled memory resources, this is only a temporary fix. Price increases could hinder demand, negatively impacting sales of the Switch 2 and PS5. The report also references past shortages in components that contributed to a slowdown in console adoption.

    Past Supply Crises

    The semiconductor crisis in 2021 severely affected hardware for both Nintendo and PlayStation. Sony had to revise its PS5 production target down from 16 million to 15 million units. This situation also compelled Nintendo to adjust its 2022 sales expectations in anticipation of disappointing holiday sales.

    Consumers are facing surprisingly high retail prices for DDR5 memory. With the AI sector dominating the supply chains, experts speculate that these components will continue to be pricey until at least 2028. While a 4.4% decline in shipments may not appear alarming, the outlook for 2027 could be grimmer. TrendForce cautions that the market might enter a “period of stagnation” just before the release of the PS6 and the next Xbox console.

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