Tag: 4680 battery

  • Legacy US Automaker Orders 10 GWh of 4680 Batteries for Cars

    Legacy US Automaker Orders 10 GWh of 4680 Batteries for Cars

    Key Takeaways

    1. Tesla achieved a record production of 4680 batteries and reached the lowest cost per kWh for these cells.
    2. Tesla considered abandoning the 4680 battery project due to production cost concerns but is now preparing for mass production with a new dry cathode method.
    3. Competition is increasing, with LG building a 4680 battery plant in Arizona that will support both Tesla and other automakers.
    4. LG secured a contract to supply over 10 GWh of 4680 batteries annually to a traditional US automaker, highlighting its expanding role in the market.
    5. LG’s 4680 cells may outperform Tesla’s, especially given Tesla’s reported thermal efficiency challenges affecting the Cybertruck’s charging.

    At the recent all-hands meeting, Elon Musk proudly announced that Tesla has achieved a record production of 4680 batteries and has reached the lowest cost per kWh for these cells.

    It wasn’t clear if he was referring to global figures or just the US, as he previously mentioned that Tesla aims to manufacture the 4680 battery as the least expensive cells in America. At that moment, he likely factored in the federal tax credit, which provides a subsidy of up to $45/kWh for battery packs made in the US.

    Tesla’s Doubts and Progress

    Just a few quarters ago, Tesla was uncertain about reaching this milestone and even considered abandoning the 4680 battery project if it couldn’t produce the cells more cheaply than suppliers like Panasonic and LG. Now, with the potential mastery of a more affordable dry cathode production method, the company is gearing up for mass production and plans to continue with the 4680 design. However, this doesn’t mean they won’t face competition.

    Competition Heating Up

    For example, LG is constructing a 4680 battery plant in Arizona that is set to become operational next year. This facility will complement Tesla’s 4680 production for vehicles such as the Cybertruck, Cybercab, and even a refreshed Model Y down the line. However, Tesla won’t be the only one benefiting from LG’s factory; it is expected to produce a total annual output of 53 GWh, with 36 GWh allocated for 4680-style batteries and the rest likely for LFP cells designed for energy storage systems.

    Rivian has already announced it placed an order with LG for its higher-capacity 4695 cells for the upcoming R2 SUV. Additionally, LG has revealed that they’ve secured a 4680 battery order from a traditional US automaker as well.

    LG’s New Contracts

    During a recent shareholder meeting, LG Energy Solution President Kim Dong-myung stated that LG has “finalized a contract to supply 46 series cylindrical batteries worth more than 10 GWh per year for multiple years through our Arizona corporation in the United States.”

    He highlighted that the most intriguing aspect of the contract is that it involves a legacy US automaker that also produces internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, unlike pure electric companies like Tesla or Rivian. The 10+ GWh annual supply represents nearly a third of the planned output for the 46 series batteries from the Arizona facility, surpassing contracts with Rivian, Mercedes, Toyota, and others.

    It will be interesting to see how much capacity the Arizona factory will allocate for Tesla, but even more compelling will be whether LG’s 4680 cells, which include advancements in cold weather cathode technology, outperform Tesla’s own cells. The Tesla 4680 battery has been reported to have thermal efficiency challenges, which have affected the charging curve of the Cybertruck.

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  • Elon Musk: Cybertruck’s 4680 Battery Cheapest Per kWh Yet

    Elon Musk: Cybertruck’s 4680 Battery Cheapest Per kWh Yet

    Key Takeaways

    1. Elon Musk announced that Tesla’s 4680 battery cells are now the most affordable to produce globally on a per kWh basis.
    2. The upcoming RWD Cybertruck launch is positively impacted by potential IRA subsidies, which may last until 2032.
    3. There is confusion regarding the status of mass production for the 4680 battery cells, as earlier demonstrations were only proof of concept.
    4. Challenges remain in implementing the dry cathode production method, which has faced significant issues with machinery and production viability.
    5. Future testing is needed to determine if the new cells will resolve thermal efficiency issues that affect charging speeds.

    Elon Musk recently took the stage at an all-hands meeting to inspire employees, asserting that Tesla’s 4680 battery cells are now the most affordable to produce globally on a per kWh basis.

    It’s not entirely clear if Musk was referencing the 4680 battery’s cost with the generous made-in-America federal subsidy of up to $45/kWh, as outlined in the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), or if he was speaking about the cost without any subsidies.

    Positive Outlook for Cybertruck

    Regardless, this news is promising for the upcoming price of the RWD Cybertruck, which is set to launch later this year. The IRA subsidies are expected to last until 2032, unless the new Trump administration decides to discontinue them, which seems to be their current plan.

    To support Musk’s statements, Bonne Eggleston, the head of Tesla’s battery division, confirmed that the company will begin mass production of Cybertruck 4680 cells using the economical dry cathode process “in a couple of months.”

    Confusion Over Production Status

    However, there’s some confusion regarding these announcements. Tesla had previously showcased the first Cybertruck utilizing the innovative dry-cathode 4680 battery back in July of last year. It now appears that this was merely a proof of concept and that Tesla was not prepared to mass-produce 4680 cathodes using the quicker, more cost-effective method at that time.

    Tesla has faced challenges for several years in delivering what it promised on Battery Day 2020, aiming for a 50% reduction in manufacturing costs with the 4680 battery. Most of the cost reductions so far have come from the efficiency of the packaging inherent to the 4680 design, as the cells are larger and fewer in number, which lowers the required welding points and allows for structural use in the chassis.

    Challenges in Dry Cathode Production

    Nevertheless, the so-called dry cathode production method, which can reduce the cost of a 4680 cell by 20%-30% as it avoids the baking of electrodes with toxic solvents, has been difficult to implement. Tesla acquired the technology from Maxwell, but it turned out to be unsuitable for large-scale production due to significant issues with the rolling machines needed for applying the dry coating. These machines frequently broke down, resulting in less than a third of the production being viable, in stark contrast to the industry standard rejection rate of just 2%.

    To validate Musk’s claim that the 4680 battery is now the cheapest per kWh, Tesla must have either improved the dry coating cathode machines significantly or found other ways to reduce costs sufficiently so that federal subsidies brought the price below what qualifies as the “cheapest battery.”

    In any case, the company anticipates starting mass production of the dry cathode 4680 battery for the Cybertruck in the upcoming months, with a record output planned at Giga Nevada, at which point a more affordable RWD Cybertruck might be introduced.

    Future Testing Needed

    It remains to be seen whether the new cells will face the same thermal efficiency issues as the current ones, which hinder the Cybertruck from quicker charging, despite its 800V architecture.

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  • 2025 Model Y Juniper Battery Capacity Leak: Minimal Range Boost

    2025 Model Y Juniper Battery Capacity Leak: Minimal Range Boost

    The recent announcement of the two Model Y Juniper versions has left some Tesla fans feeling let down regarding the battery sizes.

    Battery Expectations

    Before the reveal, there were whispers that the Model Y Juniper would feature a more spacious 95 kWh battery on the high-performance model and a new 66 kWh manganese phosphate M3P battery from CATL for the entry-level RWD variant. However, a report discussing the lukewarm response from Xiaomi’s CEO to the Juniper news showed that the anticipated battery capacity for the 2025 Model Y has remained mostly unchanged.

    Current Specifications

    The 2025 Model Y Juniper AWD Long Range is said to utilize a battery pack with a usable capacity of 78.4 kWh, which translates to around 80 kWh in total battery size. This is the same capacity as the existing Long Range and Performance models available in the US. On the other hand, the base RWD Model Y Juniper will not be available in the US market due to its Chinese LFP cells from CATL, yet it features a 62.5 kWh usable capacity, slightly above the earlier 60 kWh pack of the Standard Range Model Y that was previously sold in the US.

    Range Insights

    This situation accounts for the 2025 AWD Model Y offering just about a 3% increase in range compared to its predecessor, while the RWD model, which has a marginally larger battery, boasts a 7% improvement in range. Nonetheless, it appears that both RWD and AWD Model Y Juniper trims gain their range benefits more from design improvements and powertrain efficiency rather than just larger battery sizes.

    Tesla mentions that they’ve completely overhauled the exterior design, from the front bumper to the taillights, to maximize efficiency and extend the range from every charge. The Model Y Juniper is designed to be lighter than its predecessor, with enhanced aerodynamics, and the company emphasizes that it has been “redesigned from front to back to improve range, performance and longevity.”

    Future Expectations

    In summary, the minimal range improvement of the 2025 Model Y Juniper compared to the earlier model can be attributed to slight enhancements in drivetrain efficiency and a lower drag coefficient of 0.22, down from the previous 0.23. Enthusiasts hoping for a bigger battery in the Model Y Juniper refresh may need to wait for the US version, which is expected to feature Tesla’s 4680 battery technology from the Cybertruck. This version may finally offer the rumored larger 95 kWh battery pack for the pricier AWD and Performance models.

    However, any substantial upgrade in battery capacity will likely come with a price hike. There’s skepticism from CATL regarding Elon Musk’s ambitious plans for reducing manufacturing costs of the 4680 battery cells, with its CEO expressing doubts about achieving such significant cost cuts.

    Tesla could potentially offset these costs with federal tax credits for its domestically produced batteries, which might allow the 2025 Model Y to launch in the US with an improved range, not just for bragging rights.

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  • Tesla Model Y Juniper 4680 Battery Hurdles: Musk’s Overpromises

    Tesla Model Y Juniper 4680 Battery Hurdles: Musk’s Overpromises

    While Tesla is heavily investing in perfecting its affordable 4680 batteries to make the most of current government subsidies, the leader of the largest battery manufacturer has doubts about the feasibility of these efforts.

    CATL’s Perspective on US Investments

    In a recent discussion, CATL’s Chairman Robin Zeng shared insights on the company’s plans for production in the US, mentioning that they are open to various investments beyond just technology licensing agreements with Tesla and Ford. The Nevada Gigafactory is set to begin producing batteries using CATL’s technology as early as next year. Although the specific type of batteries being produced remains uncertain, the most likely option appears to be LFP cells. Despite Giga Nevada having a planned capacity of 100 GWh for 4680 batteries, Zeng expresses skepticism about the feasibility of achieving affordable cylindrical cells.

    Concerns About Musk’s Promises

    Zeng commented on Elon Musk, stating, “He excels in areas like chips, software, hardware, and mechanics,” but he lacks understanding of the 4680’s “electrochemistry,” which he believes “will ultimately fail.” The main issue with Musk, according to CATL’s CEO, is his tendency to “overpromise.” He added, “Maybe something requires five years, but he claims it’s only two. I asked him about it, and he said he wanted to motivate people. He probably thinks it takes five years, but if you trust him when he says two, you might find yourself in trouble.” Zeng recounted how he explained to Musk the challenges of producing cylindrical 4680 batteries at half the cost of Tesla’s existing cells, a claim made on Battery Day back in 2020, which left Musk speechless.

    Tesla’s Optimism and Future Plans

    In the recent quarterly earnings call, Musk expressed optimism that Tesla would not just match the manufacturing costs of suppliers such as LG or Panasonic but would also produce the 4680 battery at the lowest cost in the US. He stated, “The team is making great progress with the 4680 cell lines. It is getting very competitive. When you consider the total cost of a battery pack in the US, net of incentives and tariffs, the 4680 is on track to be the most cost-effective option.” While they haven’t quite reached that point yet, Musk believes they are close, adding that they have many ideas to improve further. He emphasized that Tesla will continue to source many cells from suppliers while also ramping up vehicle and stationary storage production.

    The important phrase here is “with incentives,” as the government provides $35 per kWh for US-made battery capacity, which will likely benefit Tesla significantly.

    Expanding Manufacturing Capacity

    Musk’s confidence is further bolstered by Tesla’s success with the cost-effective dry cathode method and the recent launch of the first Cybertruck utilizing these cells. The company is now looking to boost its 4680 manufacturing capacity to produce battery packs for the Model Y, Model 3, and Robotaxi. For example, the upcoming Model Y Juniper facelift is expected to feature 4680 batteries in the US, as Tesla aims to keep costs low and maintain pricing similar to the current model. However, there’s a possibility that electric vehicle subsidies could be cut with a new Trump administration, which means that the challenges with the 4680 battery’s “electrochemistry” might not be the only hurdle in terms of production costs.

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