Tag: 4680 battery

  • 2025 Model Y Juniper Battery Capacity Leak: Minimal Range Boost

    2025 Model Y Juniper Battery Capacity Leak: Minimal Range Boost

    The recent announcement of the two Model Y Juniper versions has left some Tesla fans feeling let down regarding the battery sizes.

    Battery Expectations

    Before the reveal, there were whispers that the Model Y Juniper would feature a more spacious 95 kWh battery on the high-performance model and a new 66 kWh manganese phosphate M3P battery from CATL for the entry-level RWD variant. However, a report discussing the lukewarm response from Xiaomi’s CEO to the Juniper news showed that the anticipated battery capacity for the 2025 Model Y has remained mostly unchanged.

    Current Specifications

    The 2025 Model Y Juniper AWD Long Range is said to utilize a battery pack with a usable capacity of 78.4 kWh, which translates to around 80 kWh in total battery size. This is the same capacity as the existing Long Range and Performance models available in the US. On the other hand, the base RWD Model Y Juniper will not be available in the US market due to its Chinese LFP cells from CATL, yet it features a 62.5 kWh usable capacity, slightly above the earlier 60 kWh pack of the Standard Range Model Y that was previously sold in the US.

    Range Insights

    This situation accounts for the 2025 AWD Model Y offering just about a 3% increase in range compared to its predecessor, while the RWD model, which has a marginally larger battery, boasts a 7% improvement in range. Nonetheless, it appears that both RWD and AWD Model Y Juniper trims gain their range benefits more from design improvements and powertrain efficiency rather than just larger battery sizes.

    Tesla mentions that they’ve completely overhauled the exterior design, from the front bumper to the taillights, to maximize efficiency and extend the range from every charge. The Model Y Juniper is designed to be lighter than its predecessor, with enhanced aerodynamics, and the company emphasizes that it has been “redesigned from front to back to improve range, performance and longevity.”

    Future Expectations

    In summary, the minimal range improvement of the 2025 Model Y Juniper compared to the earlier model can be attributed to slight enhancements in drivetrain efficiency and a lower drag coefficient of 0.22, down from the previous 0.23. Enthusiasts hoping for a bigger battery in the Model Y Juniper refresh may need to wait for the US version, which is expected to feature Tesla’s 4680 battery technology from the Cybertruck. This version may finally offer the rumored larger 95 kWh battery pack for the pricier AWD and Performance models.

    However, any substantial upgrade in battery capacity will likely come with a price hike. There’s skepticism from CATL regarding Elon Musk’s ambitious plans for reducing manufacturing costs of the 4680 battery cells, with its CEO expressing doubts about achieving such significant cost cuts.

    Tesla could potentially offset these costs with federal tax credits for its domestically produced batteries, which might allow the 2025 Model Y to launch in the US with an improved range, not just for bragging rights.

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  • Tesla Model Y Juniper 4680 Battery Hurdles: Musk’s Overpromises

    Tesla Model Y Juniper 4680 Battery Hurdles: Musk’s Overpromises

    While Tesla is heavily investing in perfecting its affordable 4680 batteries to make the most of current government subsidies, the leader of the largest battery manufacturer has doubts about the feasibility of these efforts.

    CATL’s Perspective on US Investments

    In a recent discussion, CATL’s Chairman Robin Zeng shared insights on the company’s plans for production in the US, mentioning that they are open to various investments beyond just technology licensing agreements with Tesla and Ford. The Nevada Gigafactory is set to begin producing batteries using CATL’s technology as early as next year. Although the specific type of batteries being produced remains uncertain, the most likely option appears to be LFP cells. Despite Giga Nevada having a planned capacity of 100 GWh for 4680 batteries, Zeng expresses skepticism about the feasibility of achieving affordable cylindrical cells.

    Concerns About Musk’s Promises

    Zeng commented on Elon Musk, stating, “He excels in areas like chips, software, hardware, and mechanics,” but he lacks understanding of the 4680’s “electrochemistry,” which he believes “will ultimately fail.” The main issue with Musk, according to CATL’s CEO, is his tendency to “overpromise.” He added, “Maybe something requires five years, but he claims it’s only two. I asked him about it, and he said he wanted to motivate people. He probably thinks it takes five years, but if you trust him when he says two, you might find yourself in trouble.” Zeng recounted how he explained to Musk the challenges of producing cylindrical 4680 batteries at half the cost of Tesla’s existing cells, a claim made on Battery Day back in 2020, which left Musk speechless.

    Tesla’s Optimism and Future Plans

    In the recent quarterly earnings call, Musk expressed optimism that Tesla would not just match the manufacturing costs of suppliers such as LG or Panasonic but would also produce the 4680 battery at the lowest cost in the US. He stated, “The team is making great progress with the 4680 cell lines. It is getting very competitive. When you consider the total cost of a battery pack in the US, net of incentives and tariffs, the 4680 is on track to be the most cost-effective option.” While they haven’t quite reached that point yet, Musk believes they are close, adding that they have many ideas to improve further. He emphasized that Tesla will continue to source many cells from suppliers while also ramping up vehicle and stationary storage production.

    The important phrase here is “with incentives,” as the government provides $35 per kWh for US-made battery capacity, which will likely benefit Tesla significantly.

    Expanding Manufacturing Capacity

    Musk’s confidence is further bolstered by Tesla’s success with the cost-effective dry cathode method and the recent launch of the first Cybertruck utilizing these cells. The company is now looking to boost its 4680 manufacturing capacity to produce battery packs for the Model Y, Model 3, and Robotaxi. For example, the upcoming Model Y Juniper facelift is expected to feature 4680 batteries in the US, as Tesla aims to keep costs low and maintain pricing similar to the current model. However, there’s a possibility that electric vehicle subsidies could be cut with a new Trump administration, which means that the challenges with the 4680 battery’s “electrochemistry” might not be the only hurdle in terms of production costs.

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