Qualcomm had big ideas for the Snapdragon X Elite, with plans for it to capture 40 to 60% of the PC market by 2027. However, they recently changed their goals and are now aiming for a market share of 30 to 50% by 2029. What's even more surprising is that this new target is focused solely on AI notebooks that aren't based on x86 architecture; it seems Qualcomm has decided to exclude Intel and AMD from its notebook market calculations entirely.
Market Analysis of Snapdragon X Laptops
An analysis from Canalys helps to explain why Qualcomm's goals have been significantly reduced. In the third quarter of 2024, which marked the first full quarter of Snapdragon X laptops being available, only 720,000 of these Qualcomm-powered devices were shipped. This results in a market share of less than 0.8%, meaning that only one in every 125 laptops sold was equipped with a Snapdragon X chip. Microsoft stands out as the top manufacturer of Snapdragon laptops, which is not surprising, as they exclusively provide products like the new Surface Pro featuring Snapdragon X chips.
Other Manufacturers in the Field
The rest of the market is filled with Dell, HP, Lenovo, Acer, and Asus. According to reports, a total of 13.3 million notebooks with AI accelerators were shipped in the third quarter, accounting for a 20% market share. However, the majority of these notebooks are powered by AMD's Ryzen AI 300 and Intel's Lunar Lake chips, leaving Qualcomm on the sidelines. Canalys also mentions that notebook makers aren’t too sure that Microsoft's Copilot+ features will encourage buyers, as about two-thirds of retailers believe that less than 10% of computers sold next year will support Copilot+.
