Key Takeaways
1. YMTC aims for 150,000 wafer starts per month and 15% of the global NAND market by 2026, despite being on the U.S. Entity List since late 2022.
2. The company plans to increase bit output faster than the industry’s expected growth of 10-15% in 2025, with 130,000 WSPM projected by late 2024.
3. Upcoming products include a 1 TB TLC device and a 3D QLC X4-6080, with future innovations expected to exceed 300 layers for better bit maximization.
4. YMTC intends to launch a pilot line using only Chinese-made tools by late 2025 to reduce dependence on foreign machinery, potentially doubling output.
5. Significant challenges remain in achieving production consistency and efficiency, particularly in extreme-ultraviolet lithography, critical for successful semiconductor manufacturing.
Yangtze Memory Technologies Co. (YMTC) has been on the U.S. Commerce Department’s Entity List since late 2022. Despite this, the firm based in Wuhan is moving forward with plans to expand its operations. The goal is to achieve about 150,000 wafer starts per month (WSPM) this year and capture 15 percent of the global NAND market by the end of 2026.
Ambitious Growth Plans
By late 2024, YMTC was already on track for approximately 130,000 WSPM, which would represent around 8 percent of the total global capacity. The company has also started shipping its 232-layer TLC parts (X4-9070), which are made by combining two layers to reach a total of 294 layers. While many of its competitors are cutting back on capital spending, YMTC aims to increase its bit output faster than the industry’s expected growth of 10-15 percent in 2025.
Product Innovations on the Horizon
The company’s roadmap includes a 1 TB TLC device and a 3D QLC X4-6080 expected later this year, along with a 2 TB TLC X5-9080 featuring a 4.8 GT/s interface planned for 2026. Future products are anticipated to exceed 300 layers by stacking three decks, which would shift the focus from throughput to maximizing bits per wafer.
Aiming for Self-Sufficiency
In a bid to lessen reliance on foreign machinery, YMTC intends to launch a pilot line using only Chinese-made tools in the latter half of 2025. Analysts suggest that if this initiative is successful, it could potentially double bit output and increase market share beyond 15 percent. However, they also note that this facility is still in the experimental phase, and achieving full production will take time.
Reports from TechInsights indicate that YMTC’s newest “Xtacking 4.0” chips perform comparably to those of leading competitors. However, the company has had to reduce the number of layers due to domestic equipment that still struggles with yield. Significant challenges remain, particularly in extreme-ultraviolet lithography, which is not yet accessible to China. Progress will depend on bridging the equipment and yield gap, even as local vendors like AMEC, Naura, and Piotech work to improve their technologies.
Overall, YMTC’s plans for capacity expansion, multi-deck NAND development, and efforts toward localization demonstrate the shift of China’s semiconductor self-sufficiency goals from mere policy statements to actual production. Whether these initiatives will result in a sustainable 15 percent market share by 2026 will rely more on the development of domestic fabrication tools and consistent production yields than on ambition alone.
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