Tesla's Model Y is nearing the title of the best-selling car in the United States, surpassing the Toyota RAV4, just as it previously did with the Ford F-150 truck. As the most American-made passenger vehicle, the Model Y has gained popularity thanks to various deals and tax incentives, despite an upcoming facelift called Juniper.
Market Share Dynamics
While the Model Y is currently the world's top-selling passenger vehicle, Tesla's overall electric vehicle (EV) market share in the US appears to be declining. Just a couple of years ago, Tesla accounted for over 80% of the electric vehicle sales in the country. Recent analyses suggest that this figure may have dipped below 50% for the first time, as preliminary delivery data is set to be revealed tomorrow.
The decline in Tesla's popularity among electric vehicle buyers is due to increasing competition and a lack of new models. Rivals such as Hyundai, Kia, and Ford are gaining market share, while Tesla experiences an unprecedented loss. This downturn occurs even as the overall EV market has grown, reaching 9% of total vehicle sales in the US—its highest point ever.
Q3 Delivery Estimates
Tesla's delivery estimates for the third quarter are projected to reach 472,000 units, which would still keep the company in the "less than 50%" market share territory since the launch of the Model Y. In 2022, Tesla's brand loyalty fell below the industry average for the first time, leading S&P analysts to predict a gradual decline toward a 20% market share, driven by the influx of competitive electric vehicle options.
Analysts have identified 2025 as a critical year when Tesla may drop to the 20% market share threshold, with many automakers preparing to launch their own mass-market EVs. However, a general drop in demand for electric cars might require a reassessment of this prediction. The rapid decline from 80% to below 50% market share in just two years suggests that increased competition could exert further pressure on Tesla's market position.
Future Prospects
In 2025, Tesla plans to introduce the Juniper refresh of the Model Y, lower the price of the Cybertruck, and launch its first Robotaxi service. These developments could help stabilize Tesla's market share against competitors like Hyundai, Ford, and GM, which is now shipping the most affordable 300-mile electric vehicle in the US.
WolfStreet & TroyTeslike (X) via CleanTechnica.
