Key Takeaways
1. Nvidia has presented an unreleased B30 AI GPU version to U.S. officials for export clearance to China, with potential performance up to 80% of Blackwell’s peak.
2. Trump is open to allowing Blackwell chip shipments to China if they have 30-50% less power than the top-tier version.
3. After a sales ban on H20 chips was lifted, Nvidia must pay 15% of sales to the U.S. government, prompting a surge in orders from Chinese customers.
4. Chinese state media criticized H20 chips as “unsafe” and “outdated,” while Nvidia denied claims of backdoors in their products.
5. Initial Blackwell models for China lack high-bandwidth memory and multi-GPU features, which may benefit domestic competitors like Huawei if performance cuts are significant.
Nvidia has shown an unreleased B30 version of its AI GPUs to officials in the U.S. for clearance to export to China. According to sources familiar with the discussions, this chip can potentially reach up to 80 percent of the “full” Blackwell peak performance. Trump has expressed a willingness to allow the shipment of Blackwell chips to China as long as they have 30 to 50 percent less power than the top-tier version. He was quoted as being open to endorsing a “somewhat enhanced negatively” Blackwell chip.
Recent Ban and Its Reversal
In mid-April, Washington prohibited sales of the H20, leading to a reported loss of $5.5 billion for Nvidia. However, this ban was lifted just three months later. The twist this time is that Nvidia must now pay the U.S. government 15 percent of its sales to China. Following this change, Chinese customers quickly started to place orders for the newly accessible H20 chips, leading Nvidia to request hundreds of thousands of H20 orders from TSMC.
Challenges and Reactions
Things took a turn for the worse soon after. Chinese state media described the H20 chip as “unsafe” and “outdated,” urging local firms not to buy these chips. Beijing accused Nvidia’s H20 chips of having “trackers/backdoors,” a claim that Nvidia has firmly rejected. Additionally, U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick’s comment about “addiction” was met with offense by Chinese authorities. Reports suggest that Nvidia has instructed its suppliers to reduce H20 production while it prepares for the next phase concerning China.
In light of these limitations, some White House officials believe that Beijing is helping domestic rivals like Huawei. Nevertheless, many Chinese buyers are still inclined to choose Nvidia chips over local options due to a limited domestic supply and an underdeveloped software ecosystem.
New Developments and Market Impact
Meanwhile, the initial Blackwell models intended for China reportedly lack high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and multi-GPU interconnect features, which limits their scaling and peak throughput. Some Chinese companies have tested samples of Nvidia’s new chips aimed at the Chinese market, and reports are indicating “positive results.” If Nvidia’s upcoming B30 chips get delayed approval or if the performance cuts are significant, domestic players such as Huawei could capture market share at Nvidia’s cost.
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