Gartner: Affordable PCs Will Disappear by 2028 Due to Costs

Key Takeaways

1. Gartner predicts the market for PCs under $500 may disappear by 2028 due to rising memory costs.
2. Overall PC prices could rise by 17% by 2026, making entry-level laptops unsustainable.
3. Device lifespans are expected to increase, with business PCs lasting 15% longer and consumer devices 20% longer by 2026.
4. Longer replacement cycles may hinder software adaptation for older hardware and delay AI PC adoption until 2028.
5. Strategies like regional pricing, refurbished markets, and promotions may help budget laptops, but challenges remain if memory prices stay high.

Analyst company Gartner predicts that the market for PCs priced under $500 might disappear by 2028, mainly due to rising memory costs. The firm anticipates that prices for DRAM and SSDs will increase significantly by 2026. Specifically, the share of memory in the total bill of materials (BOM) is expected to climb from 16% to around 23%.

Price Increases Ahead

In comparison to levels in 2025, overall PC prices could rise by 17%. The entry-level market is already operating on very slim margins. Therefore, Gartner suggests that this cost pressure could make laptops priced under $500 unsustainable. Vendors might start to focus more on profits rather than sales volume, which could lead to a decline in unit sales.

Longer Device Lifespans

Gartner’s predictions also indicate that increasing prices will lengthen the lifespan of devices. This is a trend that is being observed in the console industry too. The firm believes that business PCs could experience a 15% increase in their lifespan, and consumer devices might see an extension of up to 20% by the end of 2026.

Challenges for Software and AI Adoption

Longer replacement cycles imply that software must adapt to older hardware. Additionally, the widespread adoption of AI PCs may be delayed. Gartner forecasts that the expected 50% market penetration for AI-capable systems could be postponed until 2028.

While the firm’s analysis highlights ongoing structural pressures, there are some elements that might ease the strain on budget laptops and PCs. Strategies related to regional pricing, the refurbished market, and promotional offers are all factors to consider (1TB WD_Black SN850X SSD curr. $233 on Amazon). Nevertheless, it is very probable that the sub-$500 category for Windows laptops and PCs will encounter difficulties in the upcoming years if memory prices persist at high levels as predicted.

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