TrendForce has released a new analysis showing that DRAM prices are set to drop significantly in the first quarter of 2025. Standard DRAM products are projected to fall between 8% to 13%. When high-bandwidth memory (HBM) products are included, the overall decline in the market appears milder, ranging from 0% to 5%.
PC DRAM Faces Major Decline
PC DRAM will be impacted the most, with forecasts suggesting an 8-13% reduction in prices. This decline is mainly due to aggressive inventory reductions that started in late 2024, lower demand in end markets, increased DDR4 production from Chinese manufacturers, and an oversupply of inexpensive chips in the spot market.
Server DRAM and Seasonal Trends
Prices for server DRAM are expected to decrease by 5-10%, largely because of weak seasonal demand. Additionally, many manufacturers have transferred a significant portion of their DDR4 production to DDR5, and some HBM capacity has also switched, which increases the supply on the market.
Mobile and Graphics Market Adjustments
On the mobile front, smartphone manufacturers are remaining cautious with their purchasing strategies, despite inventory levels stabilizing. Contract prices for LPDDR4X and LPDDR5X are predicted to fall around 8-13% and 3-8%, respectively.
In terms of graphics DRAM, a price drop of 5-10% is anticipated, mainly due to sluggish demand. Even with some stockpiling of GDDR7 for future GPUs, prices are not being maintained. Consumer DRAM is also experiencing significant cuts, with DDR3 expected to decrease by 3-8% and DDR4 likely to see a more substantial drop of 10-15%.
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