A recent study conducted by the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) and Boston Consulting Group (BCG) has unveiled promising forecasts for the U.S. semiconductor sector by the year 2032. The analysis indicates a significant growth trajectory, primarily fueled by strategic policies and investments within the industry.
The report outlines that the United States is set to triple its local semiconductor manufacturing capacity within the next ten years. This expansion is projected to increase the U.S. share of global chip manufacturing capacity from 10% in 2022 to 14% by 2032.
Factors Driving Growth
Numerous factors are attributed to this anticipated expansion. The implementation of the Chips and Science Act in 2022 is highlighted as a crucial move in strengthening U.S. chip manufacturing capacity. Furthermore, substantial investments by industry leaders such as Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC) in constructing a 2-nanometer facility in Arizona, with an estimated investment of US$65 billion, further cements the U.S.'s standing in the semiconductor sector.
The Chips and Science Act has been a game-changer for the U.S. semiconductor industry, enabling vital investments necessary for its growth potential. Absent this legislation, it is projected that the U.S. would have captured only 9% of global capital expenditures (capex) by 2032, in contrast to the estimated 28% with the Act in effect.
Supply Chain Resilience
While the report paints a picture of significant growth opportunities, it also stresses the critical importance of supply chain resilience. It cautions that industrial policies could lead to bottlenecks, thereby heightening supply chain risks. Consequently, there is a push for targeted, distributed, and market-driven investments to fortify resilience.
The global landscape also features initiatives aimed at strengthening semiconductor industries worldwide. Programs like the CHIPS Act in the U.S., the European CHIPS Act, and China’s IC Industry Investment Fund stand out as significant motivators for global semiconductor investments.
Future Outlook and Recommendations
Looking forward, the report underscores the need for additional governmental policy measures to tackle supply chain vulnerabilities and fortify the U.S. semiconductor industry. Recommendations include expanding crucial CHIPS Act incentives, advocating for free trade, investing in scientific research, and broadening the STEM talent pool.
The incentives provided by the CHIPS Act have already sparked substantial investments in the U.S. semiconductor sector. With over 80 new projects announced in 25 states, totaling nearly $450 billion in private investments, these initiatives are expected to generate more than 56,000 jobs within the semiconductor ecosystem, further strengthening the U.S.'s position in the global semiconductor arena.
