Apple’s hold on the Chinese market, which was once a key driver for its iPhone sales, appears to be weakening. Ming-Chi Kuo, a well-known analyst in the industry, indicates that iPhone sales have dropped significantly in mainland China, and his observations imply that this downward trend may persist for a while.
iPhone Shipments Decline
Kuo’s findings show that iPhone shipments in China decreased by 10-12% year-over-year in December 2024, while the overall smartphone market in the region remained steady. The decline in sales seems to stem from a perceived lack of innovation in Apple’s recent offerings. The iPhone 16 series brought only small updates, like a slightly altered camera lens bump, which did not excite customers in China or elsewhere.
“In December 2024, overall smartphone shipments in China were about flat, iPhone shipments dropped by about 10-12% YoY, reflecting a continued slide in Apple’s Chinese market share.” – Ming-Chi Kuo.
Apple’s Strategy for 2025
Kuo also mentions that Apple is being cautious with its production planning for iPhones in 2025. Estimates for the first half of 2025 (1H25) suggest a year-on-year (YoY) decline in shipments of around 6%. This follows a relatively stable shipment performance in the first quarter of 2025 (1Q25), which Kuo attributes to precautionary stocking in January due to expected tariffs from the Trump administration. However, the second quarter (2Q25) is anticipated to show a significant drop.
Looking forward, Apple’s expected ultra-slim iPhone 17 and foldable models, planned for the second half of 2025, could encounter more challenges. Both devices are likely to be eSIM-only, which poses a problem in China, where carrier support for eSIM technology is still limited. Kuo highlights that unless Apple revises the designs to include physical SIM cards, these new models may face difficulties gaining popularity.
Future iPhone Launches
Even the anticipated launch of the iPhone SE4 in mid-2025 may not change the current situation. Kuo believes it is improbable that the SE4 will significantly impact overall shipment declines due to its limited effect on the entire product lineup.
For the year 2024, Kuo predicts that iPhone shipments will reach around 220 million units, with a slight rise to 220–225 million in 2025—both estimates are below the market’s expectations of exceeding 240 million units annually.
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