Key Takeaways
1. DRAM prices have increased threefold in the last three months, leading to expected laptop price hikes of at least 20%.
2. Analysts predict a 2.1% decline in global smartphone market sales due to rising DRAM and NAND costs.
3. Entry-level smartphones are now 25% more expensive to manufacture, while flagship devices have seen a 10% increase in production costs.
4. Further cost increases of 10-15% are expected in the first half of 2026.
5. DRAM prices may rise by 40% by Q2 2026, affecting budget smartphones’ features to avoid steep price increases.
DRAM prices have surged threefold over the last three months, and additional hikes are anticipated in the upcoming year. This situation is likely to cause laptops to be at least 20% pricier, with many budget smartphones likely to come with just 4 GB of RAM.
Market Forecast Adjustments
Analysts from Counterpoint Research have lowered their global smartphone market sales projections due to the increasing costs of DRAM and NAND. Initially, they expected a slight growth; however, the smartphone market is now predicted to decline by 2.1%. The lower price category, where DRAM and NAND make up a large part of the production expenses, is expected to face the biggest challenges.
Rising Production Costs
Currently, an entry-level smartphone is reportedly 25% more expensive to manufacture compared to the summer season, while the production costs for a flagship device like the Apple iPhone 17 Pro have increased by 10% thus far. In the first half of 2026, further increases in costs of around 10 to 15% are projected. Counterpoint Research anticipates that Apple and Samsung will continue to lead the market, each holding a 19% share, followed by Xiaomi at 14%, Vivo at 9%, and Oppo at 8%.
Future Price Expectations
DRAM is predicted to rise in price by 40% by the second quarter of 2026. Counterpoint Research notes that brands offering higher-end products, like Apple and Samsung, will likely be less impacted by these price hikes. In contrast, manufacturers of budget-friendly mid-range smartphones may need to downgrade features such as RAM, displays, processors, and cameras to prevent steep price increases.
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