Key Takeaways
1. The Switch 2 is projected to launch with over 1.2 million units in Japan, surpassing previous sales records for consoles.
2. Japan’s unique sales strategy includes lotteries for console reservations to manage high demand and prevent disorder.
3. Initial lottery results show approximately 517,987 units secured, with an additional 281,426 available in a second round, totaling about 1.2 million consoles.
4. The Switch 2 is expected to significantly outperform previous consoles, with the original Switch selling 330,000 units in its first weekend.
5. Nintendo forecasts selling 15 million units of the Switch 2 in its first fiscal year, which may be conservative given the strong pre-order numbers.
If the pre-order lotteries for the Switch 2 are any sign, the handheld is set to smash launch week console sales records in Japan. Based on surveys of those who entered the lotteries, we can estimate how many consoles will be needed. A well-known Japanese YouTube channel reports that over 1.2 million units could be available at launch in the country. This amount would far exceed the previous records held by other Nintendo and Sony consoles.
Unique Sales Strategy
To prevent disorder, Japan opted for a different strategy in selling the system compared to other areas. Besides the Nintendo Store, various retailers in Japan also organized lotteries for customers to reserve their consoles. After witnessing 2.2 million entries in its lottery, Nintendo acknowledged that they wouldn’t have enough consoles to fulfill the demand. Surveys of the lottery entrants reveal just how many fans were left empty-handed.
Lottery Results
In the initial lottery round, it is estimated that gamers secured 517,987 units. Those who didn’t win had a second chance in another round, which distributed an additional 281,426 consoles. When we consider the pre-order sales from other retailers in Japan, the projected launch day total for the handhelds rises to 1,227,670. However, this inventory likely won’t be sufficient to meet the expectations of buyers.
Outlook for Sales
Even though these are just estimates, it would take a significant miscalculation for the Switch 2 not to outperform previous consoles. For instance, the original Switch managed to sell 330,000 units in its first weekend on the market in Japan. Comparative reports indicate that around 600,000 PS2 systems were sold shortly after its launch.
If the Switch 2 maintains strong sales following its release date, it could set new global benchmarks for console sales. Nintendo has surprised some market analysts by forecasting that 15 million units would be sold in its first fiscal year. This figure seems rather cautious, especially considering the handheld’s pre-order numbers have surpassed expectations.
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