The future of physical game media is under renewed scrutiny after Sony’s recent disclosure that it will halt production of Blu-ray discs for new PlayStation titles in 2028. The move has prompted players and industry observers alike to question how other major platform holders, particularly Xbox and Nintendo, may adapt their strategies in the years ahead. Neither Microsoft nor Nintendo has yet issued a formal response.
An Inevitable Digital Pivot
Matt Piscatella, executive director and veteran analyst at market research firm Circana, addressed the trajectory of physical software in a new interview, characterizing the shift as the culmination of a long-developing trend. “Sales of new physical video games have fallen every year since the late 2000s,” he noted. Referring to Sony’s timeline for ending disc production, he added, “It was inevitably going to happen someday. I didn’t think an announcement would happen today, but hey, it’s 2026, and things just happen all the time, don’t they?”
Looking further ahead, Piscatella assessed the upcoming hardware generation, including Sony’s PlayStation 6 and Microsoft’s next Xbox platform, known internally as Project Helix. He suggested that the continued erosion of boxed software sales makes it increasingly probable that both successors will launch as all-digital consoles without disc drives, a move that would fundamentally reshape the retail landscape for games.
Nintendo’s Distinct Path
While the broader console market appears to be accelerating toward a download-only model, Piscatella believes Nintendo is positioned to hold onto physical formats longer than its competitors. This persistence, he explained, would include both traditional game cards and the company’s use of digital key cards—retail boxes that contain a code rather than a full cartridge.
“My gut says Nintendo does what Nintendo wants to do, and I don’t see them changing anything in their plans based on what Sony or Microsoft do or say,” Piscatella said, emphasizing the company’s historically independent approach.
The Changing Shape of Store Shelves
Nintendo’s enduring retail strength, in Piscatella’s view, has already encouraged physical stores to shift more promotional emphasis toward its products in recent years, a pattern likely to continue. Even so, the decline in traditional game disc spending is not expected to leave shelves barren. In its place, he anticipates retailers will allocate more space to download code boxes, branded merchandise, and collector’s editions bundled with physical extras. “It’s not like boxes on shelves will go away entirely with this change,” he concluded. “There will be more codes in boxes, more merch, and maybe more special editions with swag included, that kind of thing, but the change should also result in the continued decline in physical game retail spend.”
Source: www.videogameschronicle.com