According to Elon Musk, the FSD Hardware 3.0 kits can actually be upgraded to the more powerful Hardware 4.0 set of processing power.
Upgrade Possibilities
In fact, Tesla will need to do this if it finds it can't get the HW3 computers to operate the unsupervised FSD edition that is set to release next year. During the Q3 earnings call, Elon Musk announced that older Tesla vehicles equipped with HW3 kits would receive free HW4 retrofits if they can't run the expected unsupervised FSD that will come with the v13 update.
Details of the FSD Release
Elon made this remark shortly after Tesla's new AI chief, Ashok Elluswamy, explained that FSD 13 and its unsupervised version would initially be available for newer vehicles using HW4, and then "backwarded" to HW3 cars. The rationale behind this approach is that the computers in Hardware 4.0 are significantly more capable of handling the complex AI calculations necessary for the FSD's functionality.
Hardware 4 indeed has multiple times the capability of Hardware 3. It's much simpler to work with, and trying to make things work on Hardware 3 is a lot more challenging. There is also a risk that Hardware 3 may not meet the safety standards required for unsupervised FSD. If that becomes a reality, we will upgrade those who purchased Hardware 3 FSD for free, as the system has been designed to be upgradable.
Future FSD Versions
Tesla appears to have already considered this possibility, and Elon believes that simply replacing the HW3 computer with the more advanced HW4 unit could allow unsupervised FSD to operate on older vehicles. The cameras, he mentioned, are "capable" enough, meaning there’s no need for replacements.
Tesla has previously done something similar with the current FSD v12.5, launching it for HW4 vehicles first and then adapting the code for HW3 cars. However, the unsupervised FSD version is expected to have stricter safety requirements. If the older computers can’t handle it, "we'll make sure we take care of those who have bought FSD on Hardware 3," Elon assured.
Final Thoughts
Past teardowns of Hardware 4.0 suggested that retrofitting it to Hardware 3.0 vehicles isn't straightforward, but if Tesla only needs to swap out the computer to enable future FSD versions for older cars, this might be as simple as a quick service center visit.
It's worth noting that unsupervised FSD is only set to launch in Texas and California next year, and then will expand state by state based on regulatory approvals. This gives Tesla ample time to ensure HW3 vehicle owners are taken care of.
