The global technology sector is facing a steep and sustained rise in memory prices, a trend that is already hitting consumer wallets and could reshape hardware costs for years to come. Recent analysis warns that the current supply squeeze is only the beginning, with chip costs poised to surge dramatically through late 2026 and remain elevated well into 2027.
Projected Price Surge Through Late 2026
According to a new forecast from Jefferies Equity Research, memory pricing is on track for a sharp escalation beginning in the second half of next year. The firm estimates that costs could jump between 40% and 50% during the third quarter of 2026, when measured against the current quarter. This initial wave is expected to be followed by an additional 30% to 40% increase in the fourth quarter, compounding the financial pressure on device manufacturers.
A Prolonged Period of Elevated Costs
The outlook for 2027 offers little respite. Jefferies projects that memory prices will stay persistently high, with year-over-year increases holding in the range of 40% to 45%. Meaningful relief for buyers is not anticipated until 2028, when a new wave of manufacturing capacity is finally expected to come online and begin easing the imbalance between supply and demand. Lenovo Executive Director Martin Hiegl recently reinforced this somber view, suggesting that DRAM and NAND prices are unlikely ever to fall back to early 2025 levels, with elevated costs potentially becoming the industry norm through the end of the decade.
AI Demand and the Gaming Hardware Squeeze
A primary force behind the shortage is insatiable demand from artificial intelligence firms and large-scale cloud service providers. Major technology companies are locking in long-term procurement agreements with memory manufacturers, effectively reserving vast portions of future output. According to Jefferies, roughly 50% of the global memory supply is already committed through these deals, and that figure could climb as high as 70%.
For the gaming industry, the implications are sobering. While consumer anxiety has largely centered on the potential price tags of next-generation systems like Sony’s PlayStation 6 or Microsoft’s Project Helix console, even today’s hardware may not be immune. Past months have already brought console price increases from Sony, Microsoft, and Nintendo across different regions. Should memory costs accelerate at the pace Jefferies predicts, manufacturers may once again have little option but to pass a portion of these expenses directly to consumers.
Source: x.com