Key Takeaways
1. Gold reached a peak price of $3,422.72 on April 21, 2025, with expectations to climb to $3,700 by year-end.
2. The price surge is driven by increased demand from central banks and recession concerns, along with rising ETF inflows.
3. In a recession scenario, gold prices could potentially rise to $3,880 per ounce.
4. An alternative scenario suggests that if economic growth exceeds expectations, prices could stabilize around $3,550 per ounce.
5. Other banks, like UBS, have revised their forecasts, predicting a gold price of $3,500 per ounce by the end of the year.
The price of gold has reached historic highs in recent months, hitting a peak of $3,422.72 on April 21, 2025. But this is not expected to be the highest point for the year. The latest forecast from Goldman Sachs predicts that the price could climb to $3,700 per troy ounce (toz) by year’s end. This represents a 12% rise from the earlier estimate of $3,300 made in February. Analysts estimate that gold prices may fluctuate between $3,650 and $3,950.
Driving Factors for Price Surge
This surge in price is primarily due to increased demand from central banks and concerns over recession risks, which have been influenced by rising inflows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs), according to the bank. In the event of a recession, the price per ounce could even soar to $3,880, which is the upper limit of their forecast.
Alternative Scenarios
Goldman Sachs has also outlined an alternate scenario. They mention that “if growth exceeds expectations amid decreased policy uncertainty, the inflows into ETFs could align more with our interest rate-based predictions, resulting in year-end prices around $3,550/toz.”
Gold prices have surged in recent weeks, partly due to tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, which has led to a growing demand for this safe-haven asset.
Other Banks’ Predictions
Various banks have revised their price forecasts, including UBS, the Swiss bank, which now anticipates a price of $3,500/toz by the end of the year, up from their earlier prediction of $3,200/toz.
Source:
Link
